The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke down hard, crashing below the 98 mark on April 21 to hit a fresh three-year low. That weakness in the dollar lit a fire under safe-haven assets—gold ripped to a new all-time high, and Bitcoin followed with a breakout past $88,000. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, says this could be the “last chance” to grab Bitcoin under $100K. He’s betting on a Fed move involving US Treasury buybacks, which he believes will act as rocket fuel for Bitcoin’s next leg up.
On-chain data from Glassnode backs the bullish mood—whales have been loading up through March and April, with wallets holding over 1,000 BTC rising from 2,037 in late February to 2,107 by mid-April. That kind of accumulation signals that big players are positioning for the next breakout.
Bitcoin finally broke out after a tight consolidation phase, making a strong push toward the key resistance at the 200-day SMA sitting around $88,238. The charts are flashing bullish signals—moving averages are gearing up for a golden cross, and RSI has flipped into bullish territory. That tells us the bulls are taking charge. If BTC can flip the 200-day SMA into support, it likely confirms a short-term bottom, opening the gates for a run to $95K and possibly a retest of the $100K psychological level. Any dip is expected to find solid support at the 20-day EMA near $84,176.
But if Bitcoin loses that level, it would show that the bears aren’t done yet, and we could see a slide back down to $78,500. Ether is still stuck in a downtrend, but buyers are trying to spark a bounce by pushing above the 20-day EMA at $1,659. The recovery won’t be easy though—heavy resistance sits between $1,754 and the 50-day SMA at $1,846. If ETH gets rejected in that zone, the risk of breaking below the crucial $1,368 support increases sharply. On the flip side, if bulls manage to flip the 50-day SMA, it could trigger a rally back toward the $2,111 breakdown level. That’s a key zone for the bears to defend. A clean breakout above it would suggest the bottom is likely in, and ETH could start its next leg higher toward $2,600.
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