With the U.S. election and Fed’s rate decision coming up, I’m feeling that familiar buzz of anticipation in the crypto space. These next few days could be some of the most significant we’ve seen in a while. For traders, investors, and hodlers alike, this isn’t just another week; it’s a moment that could shape our portfolios in the months to come. Bitcoin is hovering around that all-important $69,000 level, and it feels like the market is standing at a crossroads.
A lot of people are flipping from bullish to cautious as uncertainty seeps into the market. And honestly, I get it. Both the U.S. election and the Fed’s decision are wild cards. Depending on how things unfold, we could see anything from a rally that shoots us to new highs or a sharp dip that leaves us scrambling to reassess.
Why the U.S. Election and Fed Decision Matter for Crypto
Both the election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are huge dealmakers (or breakers) for market sentiment. For traders, this is when you either get in early on a trend or sit back to avoid the risk. The election could change the regulatory landscape, impacting everything from crypto policy to economic strategies that ripple through the markets. Then, the Fed’s upcoming rate decision can flip the switch between risk-on and risk-off sentiment. With so much on the line, the market is in “wait-and-see” mode.
And here’s the thing: markets hate uncertainty. When things are unclear, riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins often take a back seat. But if we get a positive surprise, like an unexpected rate cut from the Fed, it could trigger a “fear of missing out” rally as people rush to re-enter. For traders, this is where your preparation pays off; if you’ve mapped out your entry and exit points, you’ll be ready to act, whether that means taking advantage of a rally or sidestepping a downturn.
Historical Patterns: Why Election Cycles Can Be Good for Markets
Looking back, election cycles have been pretty good for markets. Going all the way back to the 1950s, U.S. elections have usually ended in positive returns, with the stock market posting gains about 67% of the time. There’s something comforting about this trend, especially for long-term investors. The market generally doesn’t collapse during election years; in fact, it often rallies, even if there’s a bit of drama around the results.
In previous presidential terms, we’ve consistently seen all-time highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, regardless of who won. Even if there’s a dip, history suggests that the market recovers by the end of the term. So for us hodlers, this pattern could mean that any short-term turbulence in Bitcoin may eventually give way to another upward move, especially if it mirrors traditional markets.
What I’m Watching: Bitcoin’s Potential Catch-Up with Traditional Markets
It’s not just Bitcoin that’s nearing key levels. Gold, the S&P 500, and tech stocks like Nvidia are all testing their highs. Seeing this, I can’t help but wonder if Bitcoin is due for its own move up. While Bitcoin might be “lagging” compared to these assets, I believe it has the potential to follow suit, especially if broader markets continue their bullish streak.
If the S&P 500 can maintain its upward momentum, Bitcoin might get a confidence boost from institutional investors who are watching the correlation between equities and crypto. A weaker U.S. dollar would also help, as it usually pushes investors toward alternative assets. As someone who holds Bitcoin, I’m feeling cautiously optimistic here—traditional markets may just drag Bitcoin up with them if things go right.
Key Support Levels and the Dollar’s Role
Traditional markets are testing crucial support levels. For instance, the S&P 500 is eyeing that 5,500 to 5,600 range, while the Dow Jones is hovering around the 40,000 marks. If these support levels hold, we might see a broader market bounce that includes crypto. But if these levels break, it could send everything, including Bitcoin, into a downward spiral.
I’m also keeping a close watch on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The dollar’s strength has been putting pressure on crypto, but it’s nearing a major resistance level. If the DXY reverses, it could bring fresh momentum into Bitcoin as investors look for alternatives to a declining dollar. This dynamic plays a big role in how I’m approaching my positions right now.
The Technicals: Bitcoin’s Weekly Structure and What It Means for Traders
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is still looking solid. Higher highs and higher lows are keeping the bullish structure intact. And while day-to-day swings can be dizzying, the weekly closes are often what really matter. I’ll be watching that $69,000 level closely; a solid break above it could signal the start of a big push. For traders, this could be the entry point to watch—set those alerts and be ready to move.
If you’re a long-term holder like me, keeping an eye on weekly candle closes can help you filter out the noise. Closing above resistance levels repeatedly would reinforce that we’re still in a bull market, making it easier to stay confident even if volatility spikes short-term.
The Altcoin Dilemma: To Hold or Not to Hold?
While Bitcoin has held its own, a lot of altcoins are struggling. If you’re in weaker altcoins, you might feel like you’re bleeding out. Many of these are breaking down against Bitcoin, which isn’t a great sign if you’re hoping for quick gains. Historically, Bitcoin leads during the early stages of a bull run, and altcoins only catch up later. So, if you’re heavily invested in altcoins, it might be time to reassess your positions.
I’m personally focusing more on Bitcoin right now. In times of uncertainty, Bitcoin tends to hold its ground better than most alts. Weak altcoins can sometimes drop even if Bitcoin is rallying, and you don’t want to be left holding the bag in a bull market. Once Bitcoin establishes a firm trend, that’s when I’ll consider rotating back into stronger alts.
Final Thoughts: Keep Your Eyes on the Bigger Picture
With the U.S. election and Fed decision on the horizon, this week feels like it’s going to be a turning point. My game plan? I’m keeping an eye on weekly closes, watching for that $69,000 breakout level in Bitcoin, and monitoring the broader market’s reaction to these macro events. If we get positive news, the stage could be set for Bitcoin to ride the wave, potentially taking us into new territory.
At the end of the day, whether you’re trading or holding, remember that these moments of uncertainty are just part of the journey.
Hopefully, you have enjoyed today’s article. Thanks for reading! Have a fantastic day! Live from the Platinum Crypto Trading Floor.
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