Bitcoin slipped below the key support at $90,000, signaling that the bears are attempting to regain control. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to drop in January following a halving year. For instance, it declined by 30% in January 2017 and 25% in January 2021 before rebounding to hit new all-time highs later in those years. Bitcoin’s current dip is part of a broader trend, with the S&P 500 also correcting in recent days.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened, applying additional pressure on risk assets. Markets are also adjusting to the possibility of fewer interest rate cuts in the near future, with the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now showing only a 2.7% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the January meeting.
Bitcoin faced resistance at the 20-day EMA of $95,738 on Jan. 13, showing that bears are taking advantage of rallies to sell. The BTC/USDT pair briefly dipped below the crucial $90,000 support level but managed to hold it on a closing basis, which offers a glimmer of hope for the bulls. To regain control, buyers need to push the price back above the 20-day EMA, which would signal continued range-bound movement.
However, the bears are likely to push back hard. If they succeed in driving the price below $90,000 and sustaining it, the pair could slide further to $85,000. This level is expected to be a strong line of defense for buyers, as breaking below it could trigger a sharper decline toward $73,777. Ether broke below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern on Jan. 13, signaling that the bears have taken the upper hand. The ETH/USDT pair is now at risk of falling toward the strong support at $2,850, where buyers are expected to mount a defense. Any recovery from $2,850 is likely to face resistance at the neckline, and if the price turns down from there, it would heighten the chances of breaking below $2,850. Such a move could send the pair tumbling to $2,400.
On the upside, a break and close above the neckline would indicate that bulls are stepping in to buy the dips. A close above the 20-day EMA at $3,383 could further boost momentum, opening the door for a potential recovery.
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